Tension type headache (TTH) is a prevalent but poorly understood pain disease. Current understanding supports the presence of multiple associations underlying its pathogenesis. Our aim was to compare competing multivariate pathway models that explains the complexity of TTH. Headache features (intensity, frequency, or duration – headache diary), headache-related disability (Headache Disability Inventory-HDI), anxiety/depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), sleep quality (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index), widespread pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) and trigger points (TrPs) were collected in 208 individuals with TTH. Four latent variables were formed from the observed variables – Distress (anxiety, depression), Disability (HDI subscales), Severity (headache features), and Sensitivity (all PPTs). Structural equation modelling (SEM) and Bayesian network (BN) analyses were used to build and compare a theoretical (model) and a data-driven (model) latent variable model. The model (root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.035) provided a better statistical fit than model (RMSEA = 0.094). The only path common between model and model was the influence of years with pain on TrPs. The model revealed that the largest coefficient magnitudes were between the latent variables of Distress and Disability (β=1.524, P=0.006). Our theoretical model proposes a relationship whereby psycho-physical and psychological factors result in clinical features of headache and ultimately affect disability. Our data-driven model proposes a more complex relationship where poor sleep, psychological factors, and the number of years with pain takes more relevance at influencing disability. Our data-driven model could be leveraged in clinical trials investigating treatment approaches in TTH.